Copa America 2024 Golden Boot: Top Contenders, Predictions & Analysis

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17/06/24 895

The 2024 Copa America will be contested in the United States between June 20th and July 14th. There are 16 teams in the competition from two confederations and Argentina enter the tournament as the defending champions.

In addition to team glory, there are individual honours available, including the Golden Boot award for top goal scorer.

Despite being 36 years old, Lionel Messi enters the 2024 Copa America as the favourite to finish as top goal scorer. Messi won the Golden Boot award in 2021 with 4 goals and he needs to score 5 goals in the 2024 edition to become the all-time top scorer in the Copa America.

Messi has scored 12 goals in the same number of appearances for Inter Miami in the MLS this season and has 9 assists to his name, so he is in good form. Messi played the full 90 minutes in every game of the 2021 Copa America and scored 4 goals.

The question is, will Messi have the stamina to repeat that if Argentina go all the way in 2024?

Could serious competition for the Golden Boot award come from Vinicius Junior? The Brazilian has had another tremendous season for Real Madrid, winning La Liga and the Champions League. Vinicius Junior scored 24 goals across all competitions last season for Real Madrid, including 6 goals in the Champions League.

However, he has yet to bring his Real Madrid goal scoring exploits to the national team and has scored only 3 times in 30 appearances for his country. Vinicius Junior scored 1 goal in 4 appearances at the 2022 World Cup for Brazil and he has scored just 1 goal since in 10 appearances.

Uruguay will be looking to Darwin Nunez for goals and the Liverpool striker has 11 goals in 23 appearances for his country. Nunez scored 18 goals in 54 games for Liverpool last season, with 11 of those goals coming in the Premier League.

Nunez was unavailable for the 2021 Copa America due to injury but comes into the 2024 competition in great goal scoring form. Nunez has scored 8 goals in his last 5 appearances for Uruguay and he is the current top scorer in CONMEBOL 2026 World Cup qualifying with 5 goals.

With United States, Panama, and Bolivia in their group, Nunez should have plenty of opportunity to score goals.

Returning to Argentina and it will be interesting to see if Julian Alvarez or Lautaro Martinez partner Messi in attack. Alvarez has 7 goals in 31 appearances while Martinez has 24 goals in 58 appearances for Argentina.

Interestingly, Alvarez has failed to score in his last 13 games for Argentina whereas Martinez has scored 3 goals in as many matches but rarely plays 90 minutes for his country.

Rodrygo of Brazil has 6 goals in 23 appearances and netted 17 times for Real Madrid last season. The forward scored 2 goals in friendly matches ahead of the 2024 Copa America and should start in attack. However, it could be a case that he shares the goal scoring exploits with his clubmate, Vinicius Junior.

Forebet’s statistical model predicts Argentina, Mexico, Brazil, and Uruguay will be the final four teams in the tournament. With that and the current form of the strikers in mind, Lionel Messi and Darwin Nunez must be considered the two main contenders to finish the tournament as top scorer.